Dani Marinova

Dani Marinova

Associate Professor of Political Science

Working Papers

If you’re interested in any of the following working papers, please get in touch.

Marinova, Dani M., de Carvalho, Gabriela & González Motos, Sheila “Do equal, non-transferable parental leave rights change employer behavior? A post-reform correspondence test on job discrimination in Spain.” Pre-registration.

Abstract Statistical discrimination against mothers operates through employers inferring that mothers are less dedicated than workers without children and, more broadly, that women of childbearing age are more likely to take a leave of absence on job-protected maternity leave. A recent Spanish reform equalized the length of non-transferable paternity and maternity leave entitlements and made a portion of each mandatory, in an effort to reduce statistical discrimination against mothers and against women more generally. We test the impact of the reform along both channels, caregiving burden and anticipated leave, by fielding a correspondence experiment in Madrid and Barcelona in 2025-2026. We send 4,413 applications to 1,340 vacancies across nine occupations, using five family configurations designed to vary caregiving burden and anticipated leave, and in part replicate a 2016 pre-reform field experiment whose results serve as our baseline. Results indicate that employers respond to caregiving burden rather than anticipated leave. Candidates who signal imminent fertility are called back at the same rate as candidates signaling none, for both genders. Penalties attach instead to caregiving and are gendered: mothers of one young child and single mothers of two are penalized most, the latter receiving roughly half the callbacks of single fathers. The same pattern governs the order in which employers make contact, with these mothers called back not only less often but later, while fathers retain the small and statistically insignificant advantage reported for them before the reform. Overall, results suggest that the reform equalized the terms on which employers may anticipate leave use among men and women but job discrimination, which attaches to caregiving rather than anticipated leave, remains intact.

González Motos, Sheila & Marinova, Dani M. “Equal Leave, Equal Care? Evidence from the 2021 Paternity Leave Reform in Spain.”

Abstract This manuscript investigates whether equal and non-transferable paternity leave can promote more equitable caregiving within couples. Exploiting a natural experiment created by Spain’s 2021 paternity leave reform—which established a 16-week leave entitlement equal to maternity leave—we analyze its effects on fathers’ involvement in both physical and cognitive childcare. Drawing on an original two-wave survey of over 3,400 partnered parents of children born between 2018 and 2022, we estimate short- and medium-term impacts of increasing paternity leave duration. Results show modest gains in fathers’ participation in physical care during the early months following birth, but these effects dissipate after return to work. No significant shifts are observed in the distribution of cognitive labor, which remains disproportionately shouldered by mothers. Effects do not vary significantly by birth order or socioeconomic status. Our findings suggest that even under ideal policy conditions—equal, well-paid, non-transferable leave entitlements—progress toward gender-equal caregiving is limited. The study highlights the persistence of traditional gender roles, particularly in mental and anticipatory care tasks, and calls for broader institutional and cultural change beyond parental leave policy.

Marinova, Dani M. “Involved but Not Responsible? Paternity Leave and the Division of Care.”

Abstract Paternity leave has become a key instrument of gender equality policy, yet evidence on its capacity to durably reshape the domestic division of care remains mixed. Complicating this picture, emerging evidence suggests that paternity leave may primarily enable fathers who already endorse shared-responsibility norms rather than fostering such norms more broadly. This review introduces a conceptual distinction between involvement—the execution of specific care tasks—and responsibility—accountability for care as an ongoing domain—to help explain these inconsistent findings. Existing studies consistently show that paternity leave can increase fathers’ participation in care tasks, particularly discretionary activities and in the short term. However, there is little evidence on whether it shifts the underlying distribution of responsibility within households. We identify two key gaps in the literature that are critical for assessing the impact of paternity leave on the distribution of care and for addressing persistent methodological challenges. First, cognitive labor—the anticipatory, planning, and monitoring work before and after task execution—provides a crucial empirical anchor for the concept of responsibility, yet has been largely overlooked in existing research. Second, solo paternity leave appears most likely to facilitate a transfer of responsibility, but the empirical evidence remains limited. Drawing on this review, we outline priority directions for future research and recommend methodological approaches to better address issues of self-selection.